Blackjack and House Advantage

Contrary to many other casino games like roulette or baccarat, the topic of house edge in blackjack can be quite complex. The game itself is notably more complicated than most other common table games, and the math behind can be even more daunting to figure out. However, understanding the statistics of blackjack is crucial if you ever want to truly master this casino classic.

This guide takes an in-depth look at house edge in blackjack – how it works, where it comes from, and the various factors that impact it. We’ll also consider ways in which players can lower the casino’s advantage as much as possible without breaking any rules.

How House Advantage Works in Blackjack

House advantage is a gambling term that refers to the inherent statistical advantage that the casino has over players. All casino games are fundamentally designed so that players lose more than they win on average. This advantage is especially noticeable in the long run because bet outcomes tend to average out the more you play them.

Different games implement this house advantage in different ways. For example, the green zero pocket is the reason behind the house edge in roulette. It slightly decreases the chances of any roulette bet to win, which results in lower average payouts.

The house advantage in blackjack is determined by a relatively large number of factors. Namely, the number of decks in play, specific table rules, and whether you’re using proper strategies or not.

However, the most basic advantage of the dealer in blackjack is that the player always plays first. This might sound surprising, but it makes sense if you think about it. Players can go bust by drawing over 21 before the dealer even looks at their cards. This also means that if the dealer and player both bust, the dealer still wins.

If this sounds like a small and unimportant detail, it’s because it mostly is. Scenarios in which the playing order truly matters are quite rare. That’s why blackjack has a relatively small house advantage of just 0.5-1% on average.

However, this rule still ensures that dealers win more than players despite having more limited control of their cards. Statistically, players only win 42.22% of all blackjack rounds, while dealers win 49.10%.

That’s a fairly big advantage, but it’s somewhat offset by the fact players can win 3:2 with a natural blackjack. The fact that you can win more than 1:1 means that some player wins are more valuable, which effectively pushes the odds back in the player’s favour.

However, it’s important to note that the playing order is crucial to how blackjack works, which means it’s always there. No matter the other rules or circumstances, this one fundamental difference between you and the dealer is always there, and you can’t really overcome it.

Factors that Impact House Edge in Blackjack

While the order of play is the most important reason why the house has better odds in blackjack, it’s not the only one.

Let’s consider some other factors that affect the game and its RTP.

• Blackjack was designed to give the house an edge from the ground up, which comes down to the fact that players play before dealers. Since no variant of blackjack changes the playing order, no variant ever truly removes this advantage.
• As a direct result, dealers are more likely to win any given blackjack round.
• This advantage is slightly offset by the player’s ability to win 3:2, which pushes the game’s RTP slightly back in their favour.
• Unlike purely chance-based casino games, player decisions can actually impact the outcome of any round of blackjack. This means that your decisions affect the average returns you can expect from the game. In other words, the better you play, the smaller the casino advantage.
• However, making all of the right decisions will only minimise the advantage – you can’t fully overcome it. Playing a perfect basic blackjack strategy ensures optimal house edge, which usually only goes down to around 0.5%.
• Additionally, table rules can have a positive or negative impact on how big the house advantage is. Rules that give players more options or limit the dealer are generally better while disallowing moves results in a higher house edge.
• Other factors such as the number of decks in a shoe are also important. Generally, the fewer decks are used to play, the better things are for the player.

Which Rules Affect House Advantage?

We already mentioned that the specific rules of the table you’re playing at can affect your average long-term returns. Now it’s time to look at these rules.

In short, most common blackjack rule variations impact the house edge in one way or another. By ‘common variations’, we mean the rules that actually vary from table to table.

If you want to know whether a particular blackjack table has good rules for the player or not, here’s what you need to consider.

• When is the dealer forced to stand? – ‘Dealer stands on soft 17’ tables are generally better for us as players than variants where dealers hit soft hands.
• When am I allowed to double? – Being allowed to double any hand means players can increase their winnings from strong hands, which increases average returns.
• Is Splitting allowed? – Some online blackjack games outright ban splitting. Stay away from such tables.
• Can I split Aces? – Splitting a pair of Aces is a very strong move, but not many tables allow you to do so.
• Can I surrender, and when? – Access to the Surrender move lessens the house edge by a fraction of a per cent because you can fully follow optimal strategies. Early surrender is generally the better option, but any form of Surrender is still good.
• How much does blackjack pay? – Don’t play on tables that offer less than 3:2. Tables with blackjack 2:1 payouts are ideal but almost impossible to find nowadays.
• Does the table have Charlie rules? – The Six Card Charlie rule means you automatically win if you draw six cards without busting. It improves the RTP of blackjack, but it’s ultimately not very impactful. The rare Five-card Charlie is actually very beneficial, but good luck actually finding it.

How Shoe Size Impacts House Edge

The number of cards in play also affects house advantage. Specifically, the more decks are in the shoe, the higher the advantage of the casino.

If you’re asking why, the answers are a bit difficult to quantify. Generally, there are two reasons:

• A bigger number of cards means that the chances of drawing an “average-strength” hand are higher. Since the dealer has an inherent advantage as we’ve already explained, this means that outlier outcomes (i.e. player wins) are rarer.
• Shoes with more decks are more difficult to count. To be specific, the more decks you add, the smaller the chances of ending up with a running count that favours the player. If you have no idea what any of that means, check out our introduction to card counting in blackjack.

To be frank, though, the impact of shoe size on blackjack house advantage is minor at best. Unless you’re trying to count cards (which is impossible in online blackjack), you shouldn’t worry too much about it.

To illustrate, here’s how the number of decks impacts the house advantage, as per the Wizard of Odds. Note that the figures illustrate the difference in house advantage, not the actual house edge percentage.

These figures only show the relative change in house advantage. The actual difference in house advantage between single-deck blackjack (best-case scenario) and eight-deck blackjack (worst-case scenario) calculates to under 0.005%. That’s why we said you should be too concerned with it.

Which Blackjack Games Have the Lowest House Edge?

All of the factors we considered above tell us one thing – not every blackjack game is created equal. Some tables are objectively better to play than others.

This leaves us with an important question – which blackjack games are the best in terms of house advantage?

To answer that question, let’s look at what an “ideal” blackjack table would look like. These are all of the features and rules that would bring the lowest house edge (and highest RTP) possible.

• Single-deck shoe (or as few decks as possible)
• Dealer stands on soft 17 and must hit on 16
• Double on any total allowed, even after splitting
• Split and re-split allowed, including with Aces
• Early Surrender option enabled
• 3:2 payout blackjack payout (or as high as possible)
• Six-card Charlie rule enforced (Ideally 5-card Charlie)

Finding a top blackjack game with all of these favourable rules would be next to impossible. Your goal should be to check as many of these boxes as you can to ensure optimal returns.

We should also note that there are certain exotic rules that are theoretically even more favourable. Some examples include 2:1 blackjack payouts, Triple Down, automatic Player 21 wins, and so on. However, not only are such rules incredibly rare, but they often come with significant tradeoffs in other areas that ensure that the odds still favour the house.

Lowering the House Edge – Why Blackjack Strategy Matters

Unlike many other games you’ll find on a casino floor, the house edge in blackjack is not fixed or consistent. Since your decisions directly impact both the outcome and payout of a round, this means that how you play directly impacts the expected returns of a game.

However, we have to note that the term ‘house advantage’ refers to the inherent bias towards the casino, even if all things are equal. It’s a statistical advantage that remains in place even if you play perfectly.

In fact, playing perfectly is required to get the 0.5% house edge we have been talking about. If you make a poor decision or sub-optimal choice, the advantage increases, in theory.

To make things simpler, we’ll put it this way: you have to stick to basic blackjack strategy if you want to get the most out of blackjack. Even slight deviations deeply impact your expected returns.

If you’re not aware, basic blackjack strategy is a specific set of instructions on how to play in any situation you might find yourself in while playing blackjack. These instructions are based on the statistically optimal decisions you should make in those situations. In short, it’s a chart of moves you should make to maximise your chances of winning. You can find out more about blackjack strategy here.

You can also see the strategy chart itself below. Simply use your hand total and the dealer’s up-card to determine what to play as per the chart, and the house edge will be as narrow as mathematically possible.

• H = Hit
• S = Stand
• SP = Split
• Dh = Double if possible, otherwise Hit
• Ds = Double if possible, otherwise Stand
• Uh = Surrender if possible, otherwise Hit
• Us = Surrender if possible, otherwise Stand
• Usp = Surrender if possible, otherwise Split

Can You Beat the House Edge in Blackjack?

The short answer is that no, you can’t reliably beat the house advantage in blackjack. Remember that casinos are not in the business of giving away money, even to winners. They ensure that they statistically win in the long run because that’s pretty much a casino’s whole business plan.

The long answer is that the odds can actually favour the player in certain situations. The dynamic nature of blackjack odds means that they can, in fact, shift the other way around.

However, modern blackjack tables are set up in such a way that such situations are practically impossible to encounter or exploit.

Essentially, the chances of you winning as a player are impacted by which cards are still in the shoe. If the cards in the shoe are extremely favourable, the increased chances of winning are sometimes good enough to negate or even overpower the inherent house advantage.

It’s important to remember that the RTP and house rate of a given blackjack game are calculated under the assumption that no cards have been played yet. Every drawn card changes the probabilities very slightly.

In theory, a player who is able to track which cards remain in the shoe and then increase stakes whenever the odds are favourable can gain an advantage over the house. This is the basis of card counting.

Card Counting and Advantage

Card counting is the only mathematically proven way to beat the casino advantage in any game, not just blackjack. Experts have proven on multiple occasions that this method actually works. However, the casinos have been paying attention as well and eventually made sure that counting cards in modern blackjack is next to impossible.

Card counting works on the simple premise that high-value cards are better for the player than low-value cards. The math behind this premise is a bit complicated, though. Essentially, the fact that players don’t have to hit to 17 means that they’re far less likely to bust if they play smart. Moreover, high-value cards make it easier to hit a natural blackjack, potentially increasing the payout.

The idea of card counting is to keep track of which cards are played through. If you notice that there are more high-value cards left in the shoe than low-value cards, you increase the stakes. It’s as simple as that, though much more difficult to pull off in practice.

However, online blackjack games ensure that counting is practically impossible for several reasons.

• Too many decks – Getting a favourable count you can actually exploit is extremely unlikely in games with 6 or 8 decks, which is almost all of them.
• Low shoe penetration – Most online blackjack games, including live dealer tables, shuffle the shoe after every round. Otherwise, they shuffle the cards after only a few rounds. This ensures the most consistent house edge between rounds but also makes counting impossible.
• Anti-counting rules – Most venues actually consider card counting to be cheating. This strategy is very easy to spot for most seasoned casino personnel, so it’s hard to use it and get away with it. The fact that online blackjack keeps a detailed log of all of your bets and results makes things even harder to hide.

As such, most players can probably afford not to think about card counting and its effect on house advantage in blackjack. Unless you’re playing at a table that you’re sure you can count, it probably won’t help you much.

Conclusion

Understanding the odds of blackjack is crucial for anyone looking to play it seriously. Every strategy essentially revolves around manipulating those odds to be as favourable as possible – or at least as good as you can get them to be.

The house edge is ultimately decided by the dealer’s innate advantage of playing second. However, factors such as playing strategy, table rules, and card shoe size all have an effect on the perceived advantage of the casino. Carefully picking a table and employing blackjack strategy charts can help you bring that advantage down to a minimum.

However, all of this means that there is fundamentally no way to fully negate or overcome the house edge in blackjack. This should remind us all that playing blackjack is a form of entertainment and not a way to get rich quickly. Remember to have fun and play responsibly, and the house edge becomes irrelevant.